Two things
that seemed almost impossible and improbable at the beginning of this year are
increasingly becoming possible and probable as the year closes.
One was that
former PM Edward Lowassa would never face any disciplinary action (which was my
position); the other was that President Kikwete would never seek any assistance
from Mkapa’s wing(which was the position
of my critics) because he had overthrown
them seven years ago. Today, both scenarios are possible and probable. Both
these changes show how unpredictable the future is.
At the end of April
this year, Lowassa was a very confident man. He had resoundingly defeated Nape
and his colleagues in what perhaps analysts have nicknamed it “dubious
operation vua gamba”. Yes the Monduli MP had won the battle considering all
threats against him which ended in the gutter. Since his downfall as MP,
Lowassa has been accused of prompting the so called “gutter politics” within
the rulling Chama Cha Mapinduzi.
Due to such accusations, the party cadres including Nape and
Chiligati were of the idea that CCM should take serious disciplinary measures
against the nicknamed “mapacha watatu” Lowassa, Rostam and Chenge to mention
them. Among all, Lowassa seemed to be a great threat when it comes to
presidential contest in 2015.
As a write, things seem to change upside down giving every
sign that Lowassa is going to face something bitter just in a while. Lowassa knows
about it likewise his followers do, the new CCM leadership under Philipo
Mangula and Abduralhaman Kinana sounds a workable mechanism against corruption
and a way forward towards implementation of “operation vua gamba”. No matter
how many still trust CCM to date, whenever Mangula is mentioned people are
assured that the veteran can do something for CCM.
The return of Philipo Mangula in the party’s leadership
proves beyond the reasonable doubt that Mkapa’s wing is at work once again.
After 7 years of revolution, the party now tries to restore order and
formality. The appointment of Abduralhaman Kinana as a new Secretary General
for CCM is yet another witness that the days of “mtandao wing” have not come to
an end.
Such a paradox can take us back to political science classes
so that we can prophesize the future of CCM. If CCM chooses to undergo “mutatis
mutandis” then it will result into the like of “civil war” within the party. If
Mangula opts to put Lowassa at stake, it will be setting CCM on fire; it will
mean tearing the party into pieces!
But to view the recently increasing unpopularity of CCM
through a multiparty, opposition, divisions, or even propaganda lens is to miss
its unifying trait. The downfall of CCM is a historical blunder. The
misunderstandings, conflicts or quarrels within CCM are separate and yet
connected; part of the aftermath of the 2005 party’s election that lifted
Kikwete to presidential alongside with his friends popularly known as
“Wanamtandao”. It is just a matter of time before history teaches a bitter
lesson to CCM, following the same path as fellows UNIP and KANU in Zambia and
Kenya respectively. CCM has been left with very little time to deliver or never,
50 years is too long period for people to keep on waiting for a biblical
manner!
Nova Kambota is a columnist, reporter and political commentator
for Dira Newspaper, he is known through his Swahili column in Dira Ya Mtanzania
“KALAMU YA KAMBOTA”. You can mail him to; novakambota@gmail.com, or visit his webpage; www.novakambota.com
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